Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.180625 0.210822 0.243950 0.282917 0.327416 0.376567 0.434882
2025-12-07 0.124996 0.164438 0.212424 0.274733 0.353090 0.447916 0.570868
2025-12-14 0.093899 0.135338 0.189842 0.265992 0.368709 0.501396 0.684518
2025-12-21 0.074273 0.115637 0.173714 0.259912 0.383006 0.550570 0.793563
2025-12-28 0.063067 0.104982 0.167228 0.264482 0.410174 0.617316 0.930188
2026-01-04 0.055573 0.098222 0.164800 0.273638 0.443630 0.694574 1.087065
2026-01-11 0.048834 0.091316 0.160802 0.279246 0.471460 0.765067 1.238986
2026-01-18 0.042743 0.084355 0.155500 0.281648 0.493813 0.828321 1.384152
2026-01-25 0.037347 0.077639 0.149514 0.281821 0.511967 0.885740 1.523810
2026-02-01 0.032317 0.070709 0.142101 0.278381 0.523257 0.932389 1.648991
2026-02-08 0.027947 0.064291 0.134662 0.273795 0.531696 0.974388 1.768872
2026-02-15 0.023614 0.057178 0.124886 0.263574 0.528776 0.996386 1.856030
2026-02-22 0.022450 0.056705 0.128173 0.278843 0.574304 1.106645 2.104336
2026-03-01 0.019192 0.051020 0.120174 0.271075 0.575982 1.139549 2.219991
2026-03-08 0.016357 0.045766 0.112289 0.262466 0.574931 1.167002 2.327304
2026-03-15 0.014137 0.041567 0.106061 0.256461 0.578214 1.202354 2.451008
2026-03-22 0.012928 0.039699 0.104809 0.260976 0.603162 1.280409 2.659377
2026-03-29 0.012125 0.038761 0.105582 0.270022 0.638263 1.380444 2.915799
2026-04-05 0.011194 0.037291 0.104869 0.275564 0.666300 1.468345 3.154139
2026-04-12 0.010195 0.035428 0.102912 0.277938 0.687562 1.543949 3.372834
2026-04-19 0.009203 0.033381 0.100186 0.278108 0.703822 1.610231 3.576697
2026-04-26 0.008170 0.030990 0.096208 0.274709 0.711597 1.659262 3.748439
2026-05-03 0.007217 0.028641 0.091990 0.270178 0.716248 1.701841 3.909297